Food Inflation Jumps To 5.32% As Tomato Prices Surge; More Pain Ahead In July?

Food prices continued to climb in June, with inflation measured by the revised consumer food price index rising to 5.32 per cent, as a sharp increase in tomato and ginger prices added pressure to household food bills.

The latest data marks a further acceleration from May 2026, when food inflation stood at 4.78 per cent. On a sequential basis, the all-India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) increased by 1.7 per cent in June compared with the previous month, reported The Financial Express.

Food Inflation Reverses From Months Of Deflation

The latest increase represents a notable turnaround in India's food price trajectory. Food inflation had remained in negative territory for seven months through December 2025.

In January, when the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation introduced the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series with 2024 as the base year, food inflation stood at 2.13 per cent.

Using both the current CPI series and the previous series, which had 2012 as the base year, food inflation recorded in June was the steepest in 17 months.

The upward trend may not ease immediately, according to economists.

“Food prices will continue to increase as seen for vegetables and fruits in the market as well as pulses,” Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, said.

Tomatoes And Ginger Drive Price Pressure

A closer look at the inflation data reveals a sharp divergence in the prices of key food items.

Tomato inflation surged 31.92 per cent, while ginger prices recorded an even steeper increase of 50.41 per cent, according to the official statement issued by the statistics ministry.

However, not every item in the food basket became more expensive.

Potato prices declined 20.34 per cent on a year-on-year basis in June 2026, while peas became 9.67 per cent cheaper. Cumin, or jeera, also recorded a decline.

Together, these three commodities have a combined weightage of 1.24 per cent in the CPI basket.

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El Nino Emerges As Fresh Food Inflation Risk

The inflation outlook is now increasingly linked to the progress of the monsoon and the possible impact of El Nino on agricultural production.

“Looking ahead, food inflation remains vulnerable to weather-related risks, including the possibility of El Nino affecting agricultural output,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist, Anand Rathi Group, said.

The India Meteorological Department earlier this month forecast ‘below-normal’ rainfall of less than 94 per cent of the benchmark long period average (LPA) for July, citing El Nino conditions evolving over the Pacific ocean.

The weather department also said India is likely to experience ‘moderate to strong’ El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season from June to September.

Monsoon Revival Brings Some Relief

There has, however, been an improvement in rainfall conditions in July.

After a substantial rainfall deficit of 40 per cent in June, the revival of the monsoon this month helped narrow the overall rainfall deficit to 19.4 per cent as of Monday.

The improvement in rainfall has provided a boost to kharif crop sowing.

Overall sowing of key kharif crops, including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and coarse cereals, remains delayed and continues to lag. The pattern and distribution of rainfall during the latter half of July and through August are likely to influence crop yields.

Food Prices May Rise Further In July

Economists are already seeing signs of further sequential pressure on food prices in the current month.

“Retail food prices have continued to harden sequentially in July 2026, reflecting the typical seasonal trends.,” Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA said while adding that inflation in the food and beverage segment is set to inch up further in July 2026.

Nayar noted that the rainfall deficit for the southwest monsoon season had narrowed by July 12, 2026, following surplus rains during the early part of the month.

According to her, the improvement bodes well for kharif crop sowing trends, which are expected to pick up during the ongoing monsoon season.

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Weather Holds The Key To Food Price Outlook

For now, the revival of the monsoon offers some comfort for the agricultural outlook. However, delayed kharif sowing and the possibility of moderate to strong El Nino conditions continue to pose risks.

With food inflation already rising from 2.13 per cent in January to 5.32 per cent in June, the progress of the monsoon and its impact on crop yields will remain crucial to the food price trajectory in the coming months.