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The brief relief from softer oil prices may be fading for India. The country's crude oil import benchmark has jumped by more than $8 a barrel in just 10 days, bringing fresh pressure on the energy import bill and putting expectations of petrol and diesel price cuts on hold.
The Indian crude basket climbed from $68.21 per barrel on July 3 to $76.28 per barrel on July 13, an increase of $8.07 in 10 days.
The renewed surge comes amid fresh escalation in the US-Iran conflict and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, reviving pricing risks for oil marketing companies (OMCs), airlines and fertiliser producers.
An $8 Jump In 10 Days Changes The Fuel Price Equation
The pace of the increase is significant for India, which faces higher import costs as crude oil becomes more expensive.
Pankaj Srivastava of Rystad Energy said every $10-per-barrel increase in crude translates into roughly $42 million a day in additional crude import costs for India, reported The Financial Express.
The immediate pressure on OMC marketing recoveries, however, may emerge gradually because much of their near-term crude procurement has already been secured, Srivastava said.
Even so, the sharp rise in the Indian basket has complicated expectations of lower retail fuel prices after crude prices eased following the earlier de-escalation in West Asia.
Petrol, Diesel Price Cuts Now 'Off The Table'
Manas Majumdar, Leader, Oil & Gas, Fuels & Resources at PwC India, said the renewed conflict had effectively ended near-term expectations of retail fuel price cuts.
“The retail fuel price cuts we were expecting post-ceasefire are now off the table,” Majumdar said.
According to him, lowering retail prices at this stage would risk pushing OMCs back into daily losses as their crude procurement costs rise.
The immediate pressure could instead become visible in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and fertiliser costs, he added.
Strait Of Hormuz Back In Focus After US-Iran Escalation
Fresh tensions between the US and Iran have once again brought the Strait of Hormuz into focus.
The strategically important corridor is critical for India's crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
An analyst described the recent move in oil towards $86 per barrel as “primarily a geopolitical risk repricing rather than a reflection of stronger underlying demand fundamentals”.
According to the analyst, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of tighter sanctions on Russian oil have increased supply risks.
If crude remains above $85 per barrel for an extended period, India's energy import costs, currency pressures and freight and insurance expenses could rise. Such a scenario would also reduce the ability of OMCs to continue absorbing higher costs.
Brent Crude Hits Four-Week High
Global crude prices climbed to four-week highs on Tuesday after the US reimposed a naval blockade of Iran and renewed attacks raised fresh concerns over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude gained $2.89, or 3.47 per cent, to $86.19 per barrel, its highest level since June 12.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.53, or 1.96 per cent, to $79.67 per barrel, marking its highest level since June 16.
“With the US-Iran conflict reigniting and the Strait of Hormuz facing closure again, Brent has already risen and could surge toward $100/bbl within days if the situation continues,” Majumdar said.
Gas prices are also likely to move in tandem with crude, he added.
Higher Oil Could Add Billions To India's Subsidy Burden
The consequences of a sustained oil price increase could extend beyond petrol pumps.
“For every $10/bbl rise in crude, India’s subsidy bill grows by roughly $13-15 billion, widening the current account deficit,” Majumdar said.
He expects ATF and fertiliser costs to be among the first to feel the impact of the renewed energy price surge.
India, however, is better positioned in terms of securing physical supplies after diversifying its crude sourcing to more than 40 countries, Majumdar said.
“The real pain will be on pricing, not volume. Expect a 20-30% jump and a fresh scramble for non-Gulf cargoes as buyers try to hedge against Gulf supply risk.”
Crude Had Fallen Sharply After June Ceasefire
The latest price surge follows a significant correction in oil prices after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17.
The Indian crude basket had fallen to $68.86 per barrel on June 27. This was more than 56 per cent below its conflict-driven peak of $157.04 per barrel recorded on March 23, after hostilities erupted on February 28.
However, the fresh escalation has once again reversed the direction of crude prices.
The Indian crude basket for July is weighted 79.40 per cent towards sweet crude linked to dated Brent and 20.60 per cent towards sour Oman-Dubai grades.
Freight And Insurance Costs Could Add To Import Pressure
The price of crude itself is only one part of India's energy import costs.
“Higher geopolitical risk translates directly into higher tanker freight rates and marine insurance premiums, increasing the delivered cost of crude oil, LPG/LNG and fertilizers,” Srivastava said.
These additional expenses could push India's import costs higher even if global crude benchmarks eventually stabilise.
For an economy dependent on imported energy, higher freight and insurance costs can add another layer of pressure to the overall cost of securing supplies.
Will Petrol And Diesel Prices Rise Again?
Despite the sharp increase in crude prices, Srivastava expects the near-term impact on retail pump prices to remain limited unless flows through the Strait of Hormuz decline to almost zero.
Earlier fuel price increases have provided some buffer, while OMCs may initially absorb a part of the higher procurement and logistics costs.
“Historically, retail fuel price revisions have occurred when the Indian crude basket averaged around $106/bbl. Therefore, unless crude prices sustain levels well above $110/bbl, a further increase in retail fuel prices appears unlikely,” Srivastava said.
This means another petrol or diesel price hike may not be immediate. However, the prospect of a price cut has become considerably weaker following the latest crude surge.
Crude Above $85 Could Test OMCs' Ability To Absorb Costs
The duration of elevated oil prices will now be crucial.
“While oil marketing companies may absorb part of the near-term impact, a prolonged price environment above US$85/bbl would progressively constrain that flexibility and increase pressure across the petroleum fuels value chain,” said Praveen Rai, Director, Grant Thornton Bharat.
For now, India's diversified crude sourcing may help protect the country against a major supply shortage. But as the Indian crude basket moves higher and geopolitical risks return to the energy market, the more immediate challenge is increasingly about how much the country will have to pay for its oil.
